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Leitura recomendada sobre o euro

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 18.07.15

"A German return to the deutsche mark would cause the value of the euro to fall immediately, giving countries in Europe's periphery a much-needed boost in competitiveness. Italy and Portugal have about the same gross domestic product today as when the euro was introduced, and the Greek economy, having briefly soared, is now in danger of falling below its starting point. A weaker euro would give them a chance to jump-start growth. If, as would be likely, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Finland followed Germany's lead, perhaps to form a new currency bloc, the euro would depreciate even further.


O texto completo está no site da Bloomberg News e nele se contém todo um conjunto de argumentos passível de discussão, e que eu gostaria de ver discutido de forma séria, no sentido da saída da Alemanha, e não da Grécia, do euro. Não quero tomar partido sobre a questão mas os argumentos parecem-me interessantes. Vale a pena lê-lo sem palas nem preconceitos, até porque quem o assina não é um perigoso radical comentador de blogues ou um borra-botas qualquer.


por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 17.07.15

"The Greek debt deal announced on Monday morning is damaging both in its result and the way in which it was reached.

First, the outcome of the talks is ill-advised. Even if one were to consider the strangulating terms of the deal the right course of action, one cannot expect these reforms to be enacted by a government which by its own admission does not believe in the terms of the agreement.

Secondly, the outcome does not make sense in economic terms because of the toxic mixture of necessary structural reforms of state and economy with further neoliberal impositions that will completely discourage an exhausted Greek population and kill any impetus to growth.

Thirdly, the outcome means that a helpless European Council is effectively declaring itself politically bankrupt: the de facto relegation of a member state to the status of a protectorate openly contradicts the democratic principles of the European Union.

Finally, the outcome is disgraceful because forcing the Greek government to agree to an economically questionable, predominantly symbolic privatisation fund cannot be understood as anything other than an act of punishment against a left-wing government. It’s hard to see how more damage could be done.

Os sublinhados são meus. As conclusões são de Habermas.

Nada disto é inocente (10)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 15.07.15

"The summit document asserts with self-serving dishonesty that Greece’s debt has come off the rails due to the failure of Greek governments to stick to the Memorandum over the last year. Had this not occurred, the debt would still be sustainable.
This is a lie. Public debt ballooned to 180pc late last year – long before Syriza was elected – and even though the New Democracy government had complied with most Troika demands.
The truth is that Greece was already bankrupt in 2010. EMU creditors refused to allow a normal debt restructuring to take place because it would have led to instant contagion to Portugal, Spain, and Italy at a time when the eurozone had no lender-of-last resort or defences." - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph

Nada disto é inocente (9)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 15.07.15

"Greek debt crisis: Meet the Goldman Sachs banker who got rich getting Greece into the euro" - The Independent

Cheira-me que ter ido para além da dívida também foi ideia dele

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 15.07.15

"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date,” said the IMF in a confidential report."

"The decision by the European Central Bank to force the closure of the Greek banks two weeks ago by freezing emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), appears to have cost European taxpayers very large sums of money." - The Telegraph

Nada disto é inocente (8)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 15.07.15

"The reality is the system we have created left Europe paralysed." - Guy Verhofstadt

Nada disto é inocente (7)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 15.07.15

"Greece unquestionably needs reform. But remember where the country was just a year ago. Austerity was paused in 2014, which allowed growth to return. Athens was in a primary surplus and needed no further financial aid — only extensions to smooth out the steep repayment cliffs in 2015 and 2016 that the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund recklessly left unchanged in the 2012 restructuring. Would it really have been so hard to simply grant the extensions (without haircuts), let the growth rebound continue (which would have increased the ability to service the debt) and leave Greeks to fight out whether and how to fix their country (or not)?" - Martin Sandbu, The Financial Times

Nada disto é inocente (6)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 14.07.15

"The only thing certain about the aftermath of Sunday’s Euro summit is the disgrace of the political leaderships. The EU’s main powers tried to ritually humiliate the Greek government, but ruthlessness of intent was matched by incompetence when it came to execution."- The Guardian

Nada disto é inocente (5)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 14.07.15

"Lamentablemente, como muestran los niveles de desconfianza y dureza introducidos en el acuerdo alcanzado entre Grecia y sus socios, nunca vistos en la eurozona, algunos miembros de la eurozona parecen estar bien dispuestos a colaborar con ese empeño en dar armas a los populismos soberanistas de izquierdas y de derechas." - Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, El Pais


Nada disto é inocente (4)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 14.07.15

"La vera tragedia nel cuore dell'Europa, oggi, non è la Grecia. E' la Germania, l'isolamento culturale, ideologico in cui vive la maggior potenza del continente. La tragedia è che Schaeuble, la Merkel, la Spd non potevano, probabilmente, per realismo politico, comportarsi diversamente. Per anni, l'establishment tedesco – dai politici ai giornali – ha fornito all'opinione pubblica una immagine della realtà europea fasulla, in cui, ad esempio, i tedeschi appaiono quelli che finanziano i debiti greci, anche se, pro capite, il contribuente tedesco ha versato esattamente quanto quello italiano. Nessuno, tuttavia, al di là del Reno, la mette in discussione. Ora, è anche possibile che i teorici dell'austerità abbiano ragione, ma l'aspetto malsano della vicenda è che l'opinione pubblica tedesca non conosce altra versione della realtà. Le critiche di premi Nobel come Krugman e Stiglitz, le obiezioni di Obama, lo smantellamento dei dogmi dell'austerità da parte del Fmi, gli appelli dello stesso Fmi ad un taglio del debito greco non sono mai arrivati all'opinione pubblica. I giornali non ne parlano, i politici neanche. Per quanto possa apparire incredibile, un dibattito non c'è. Al volante della macchina europea c'è una Germania che non riesce a staccare gli occhi dal proprio ombelico." - Maurizio Ricci, La Repubblica

Nada disto é inocente (3)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 14.07.15

"Dans ce cas, la Grèce serait le détonateur. Les gens sont au bord d’une prise de conscience du tragique réel de la situation. Le tragique réel de la situation, c’est que l’Europe est un continent qui, au XXe siècle, de façon cyclique, se suicide sous direction allemande. Il y a d’abord eu la guerre de 14, puis la deuxième guerre mondiale. Là, le continent est beaucoup plus riche, beaucoup plus paisible, démilitarisé, âgé, arthritique. Dans ce contexte ralenti, comme au ralenti, on est en train sans doute d’assister à la troisième autodestruction de l’Europe, et de nouveau sous direction allemande." - Le Soir e também aqui

Nada disto é inocente (2)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 13.07.15

"Other eurozone countries urged Germany to drop its objections. “Grexit has to be prevented,” said Jean Asselborn, the Luxembourg foreign minister. “It would be fateful for Germany’s reputation in the EU and the world. “Germany’s responsibility is great. It’s about not conjuring up the ghosts of the past,” he told German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “If Germany goes for Grexit, it will trigger a deep conflict with France. That would be a catastrophe for Europe.”

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, was expected to tell Merkel at the leaders’ meeting that “enough is enough” and the eurozone should not humiliate Greece when it had already given up so much." - The Guardian

Nada disto é inocente (1)

por Sérgio de Almeida Correia, em 13.07.15

"Um catálogo de atrocidades é como o Spiegel rotula as exigências que o Eurogrupo fez este domingo ao governo grego, exigências cuja maioria veio directamente de Wolfgang Schäuble, ministro das Finanças alemão. Segundo a leitura da revista alemã, as propostas do Eurogrupo "são uma humilhação deliberada" da Grécia, que no fundo "parecem querer prevenir que haja qualquer acordo" jornal i.

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