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Chipre, take 2

por José António Abreu, em 25.03.13

A proposta actual:

The country’s second-biggest bank, Laiki, would be wound down. Viable assets and insured deposits would be put into a “good bank”. Another €4.2 billion worth of uninsured deposits would be placed into a “bad bank”, to be disposed of, with no certainty that big depositors will get any money back.

The treatment of the biggest bank, Bank of Cyprus, was a bit less harsh. It is to be restructured severely by wiping out shareholders and bailing in bondholders, both junior and senior. Uninsured depositors would probably incur haircuts of the order of 35%, said senior sources involved in the negotiation. The “good bank” emerging from Laiki would be merged with Bank of Cyprus.

 

Dos erros da semana passada:

After the upheavals of the past week, and months of earlier negotiations, the euro zone has ended up with a deal that is similar to the solution first proposed by the IMF, which was backed by Germany but rejected by Cyprus (and to some extent by the European Commission). The IMF had suggested winding down both Laiki and Bank of Cyprus and splitting them into good and bad banks. Now Mr Anastasiades has salvaged the shell of the Bank of Cyprus, but at the cost of encumbering it with bad assets. The scale of the bail-in that will be required to bring it to the target capital-ratio of 9% remains unclear.

It took a popular protest, and a threat by the European Central Bank to cut off liquidity to Cyprus by March 25th if a deal were not reached, to change Mr Anastasiades’s mind about trying to protect those big foreign depositors at the expense of small domestic savers.

[…]

Even France, usually the champion of “solidarity”, could not summon the will to bail out Cyprus’s “casino” banking, as Pierre Moscovici, the French finance minister, put it.

 

E para que não restem ilusões:

Nobody doubts that, after such a severe blow to its lucrative banking sector, Cyprus will be pushed into a harsh recession. Some sources in the troika tentatively estimate that GDP will shrink by about 10% before any hope of recovery.

 

Do Economist.


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