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Definição do xadrez em curso

por Paulo Gorjão, em 09.01.09

aqui chamei a atenção para o erro. As análises do diferendo entre a Rússia e a Ucrânia que se centram apenas na componente económica/energética, desfocam por completo a compreensão do que está em curso, na medida em que ignoram aquilo que é verdadeiramente importante, i.e. a sua vertente política. Faço minhas as palavras de Peter Brookes: "Russia's decision to cut off natural-gas shipments to Ukraine -- and essentially 13 other European states that receive gas via its pipelines -- is a lot more than a business decision based on failed year-end contract negotiations. A lot more. (…) In fact, Moscow is likely using the cover of a seemingly straight-forward business dispute to do some good ol' fashioned arm-twisting of its Ukrainian and European neighbors. First, the Kremlin is unhappy with how things have gone politically in Kiev since the 2004 Orange Revolution, when a pro-West ticket won the presidency over Moscow's man. (…) Cutting off gas in the depths of winter is a warning to Kiev - now in the midst of a financial crisis and facing elections next year - reminding it that Moscow can still call some shots there. (…) Russia also wants Ukraine to knuckle under on extending the lease for Russia's Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea beyond the agreement's 2017 expiration. (Kiev said it won't be renewing the pact.) The cut-off is also a shot across Europe's bow. It gets nearly 40 percent of its natural gas (and one-third of its oil) from Russia - and it's clear: Moscow is in no mood to be messed with. Russia is displeased with Europe about its support for a planned US missile-defense system in Eastern Europe, for Kosovo's independence from Moscow's ally Serbia last spring and for Georgia during Russia's invasion last summer - to name just a few matters. At the very least, Russia might hope Europe will use tools such as potential European Union membership and aid to pressure Ukraine to pay greater heed to Moscow. (…) No doubt: Russia will continue to use energy as a weapon - indeed, it has replaced the Red Army as the prime source of Russian power. It's high time Europe diversifies its energy sources, casting off the yoke of its dogged reliance on Russian oil and gas."

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2 comentários

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De André Couto a 09.01.2009 às 18:25

Foi exactamente nesse sentido o meu segundo texto aqui no DdO. A questão está a ser mal analisada e a generalidade dos comentadores não a têm aprofundado devidamente. O problema é que a Rússia estará muito tempo em condições de chantagear a Europa e brincar com a política interna de muitos países...
http://delitodeopiniao.blogs.sapo.pt/8807.html
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De João Carvalho a 10.01.2009 às 09:14

I see...

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